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Trends impacting housing

May 5th, 2008 - Real Estate

The Economy

The Canadian economy slowed during the third quarter of 2007. Annualized growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) was 2.9 per cent, down from 3.8 per cent in the second quarter and 3.5 per cent in the first quarter. The strong Canadian dollar was a key factor that slowed GDP growth in the third quarter. The high dollar made imported goods less expensive, while making Canadian exports less competitive. As a result, net exports were a significant drag on the economy. Growth, however, is still much higher than the 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2006. Overall economic growth for 2007 is expected to be 2.6 per cent, with 2008 coming in at 2.4 per cent. The consumer side of the economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Personal expenditures were up an annualized 3.0 per cent during the third quarter of 2007, compared to 5.9 per cent in the second quarter and 3.4 per cent in the first. Despite the falloff, the consumer is still expected to bolster the economy into 2008. Interest rates still remain relatively low and should not put a significant drag on consumer spending. The continuing challenge for the

Canadian economy is the deterioration in net exports and manufacturing jobs, which have decreased by nearly 100,000 positions during 2007. A soft U.S. economy may mean further interest rate reductions for Canada’s largest trading partner, but it is unclear how aggressive the U.S. Fed will be in combating the lingering issues in the U.S. sub-prime housing market and whether further interest rate reductions will occur. Output of goods-producing industries fell by an annualized 0.35 per cent during the third quarter of 2007. The manufacturing segment fell by an annualized 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, output of services-producing industries grew by an annualized 3.8 per cent during the third quarter. Wholesale trade, finance, construction, mining, accommodation and food services contributed to the increase. On the whole, it is anticipated that domestic demand will remain the engine of Canada’s economic expansion for 2008 and beyond. Consumer spending should stay vibrant thanks to high employment, income gains and low interest rates. On the downside, soft net exports and global insecurity pertaining to the subprime meltdown could be a larger issue for economic growth. It is expected that inflationary pressures will remain stable within the Canadian economy. Inflation was up 2.4 per cent in 2007. For 2008 inflation is forecast to be 2.3 per cent. Canada’s core inflation rate for 2007 increased just 1.7 per cent.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates increased by about 100 basis points between the start and the end of 2007. The sub-prime mortgage loan crisis in the U.S. has continued to rock financial markets resulting in liquidity issues which have increased the costs of funding mortgages. Equity and financial markets have experienced additional

upheaval as many analysts and investors speculate on the possibility of the U.S. slipping into a recession. The ensuing flight to quality in financial markets has resulted in lower yields on government bonds, but has not had a large impact on posted mortgage rates.

The potential drag on Canadian GDP growth due to a potential U.S. economic slowdown, coupled with the tightening of Canadian credit conditions, and the high value of the

Canadian dollar will cause minor fluctuations in mortgage rates through 2008. Mortgage rates are expected to remain within 25-75 basis points of their current levels in 2008 and then stabilize throughout 2009. The one year posted mortgage rate is forecast to be in the 6.75-7.50 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 7.00-7.75 per cent range in 2008.

Migration

Net migration (immigration minus emigration) was up by about 5.4 per cent to under 228,000 people during 2007. In 2008, net migration is expected to increase to approximately 235,000 migrants. These levels will continue to support Canada’s housing demand. For the most part, newly arrived immigrants initially settle in rental accommodations, and, over time, an increasing share will move into home ownership. Net inter-provincial migration to Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan will continue to support demand for both rental and ownership housing in these provinces in 2008.

Employment and Income

For 2007, employment grew at a healthy pace of approximately 2.3 per cent. On a comparative basis, 2006 experienced 1.9 per cent growth with most of the new jobs created as full time positions. A record share of Canadians was employed during 2007, which helped the unemployment rate to move below 6 per cent some months.

The Canadian economy is at or near full employment. Accordingly, the pace of employment growth is expected to slow during 2008 to a pace that is more in line with that of the general population. Employment is forecast to grow by 1.5 per cent and the unemployment rate is likely to remain in the low 6 per cent range for 2008. While these are positive developments in Canada’s labour markets, current economic conditions do pose some risks. In particular, Canada’s manufacturing sector is presently experiencing some weakness due in large part to a strong Canadian dollar. Accordingly, this sector will have some uncertainty with respect to employment and income as 2008 progresses forward. Despite this caveat, Canada continues to experience tight labour market conditions, which has had led to strong growth in average weekly earnings, especially in western Canada. Overall, more moderate income and employment growth will limit the expected decline in demand for new and existing homes this year.

 

 

 

Source: CMHC First Quarter 2008

National Housing Outlook

May 5th, 2008 - Real Estate

New home construction in 2007 and 2008 can be described as buoyant by historical standards. For 2007, housing starts in Canada were up 0.4 per cent to 228,343 units over 2006s 227,395. Seven out of the ten provinces saw housing starts move higher in 2007. Saskatchewan led the way with a 61.7 per cent increase. Housing starts were also up in PEI, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, B.C., and Newfoundland and Labrador. However, for 2008 only Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and Manitoba are forecast to have increases in starts. Residential construction will begin to trend down in 2008 to 211,700 units, a 7.3 per cent decline from 2007. Despite the fall, 2008 will be the seventh consecutive year in which housing starts exceed the 200,000 unit threshold. For 2009, 204,700 units are forecast to be built. Continuing high employment levels and rising incomes will provide a solid foundation for strong housing markets. Despite this, several factors will cause construction activity to ease. Most, if not all, of the pent-up demand that built up during the 1990s has now been fulfilled and residential construction activity will gradually move in line with Canadian demographic fundamentals. In addition, higher mortgage carrying costs due to price growth will temper housing demand, particularly among first-time buyers who are more sensitive to the widening gap between the cost of renting and home ownership. Moreover, competition from the existing home market, particularly in the central and eastern provinces where housing markets are more balanced, will give homebuyers more choices. This, in turn, will dampen spillover demand from the existing market into the new home market. Lower demand for new homes is already being felt in the majority of central and eastern Canada. Accordingly, the demand for new homes has slowed in Ontario and Atlantic provinces, excluding Newfoundland and Labrador, which will translate into a decline in housing starts heading into 2008. Out west, housing starts in Saskatchewan and Manitoba experienced strong growth in 2007, while the increased cost of homes in Alberta and British Columbia had a dampening effect in those provinces. For 2008, only Manitoba will see an increase in starts, of about 1.1 per cent. The same holds true for 2009, with Manitoba at 1.7 per cent growth and the rest of Canada’s western provinces negative.

Single detached starts to trend lower in 2008

Single detached starts peaked at 129,171 units in 2004, their highest level since 1987. In 2007, single starts were notably lower at about 119,000 units. The strongest declines in single starts were in Alberta and British Columbia. Single detached construction activity is forecast to fall 10.6 per cent to about 106,300 units in 2008, and then an additional 4.9 per cent fall to 101,100 units in 2009. Starts of single-detached homes will rise in just two out of ten provinces across Canada in 2008; starts in Manitoba are forecast to grow by 3.7 per cent while in Newfoundland by 0.7 per cent. The largest decrease will be in Alberta, where single detached starts will fall by an estimated 17.3 per cent. Following Alberta is British Columbia’s decrease at 14.5 per cent. Heading into 2009, the downward trend will continue, with only Newfoundland and Manitoba pushing out gains of 2.3 and 2.5 per cent respectively. Multi-family starts will begin to slow in 2008 Starts of multiple family homes increased during 2007 by 3.2 per cent to 109,426 units. This segment is forecast to slow during 2008 and 2009 where growth will be negative both years at -3.7 and -1.7 per cent respectively (105,400 units for 2008 and 103,600 for 2009). The slower decline in multiple starts, when compared to single starts, reflects a continuing shift in demand toward less expensive homes. This is especially true in Western Canada, where rising house prices have pushed overall mortgage carrying costs higher. In fact, British Columbia and the Prairies, where growth in house prices has been the strongest, saw an increase in multi-family housing starts in 2007. Conversely, Ontario and the Atlantic region experienced a decrease in multi-family starts as growth in house prices moderated during 2007. Apartment starts, which account for two-thirds of total multi-family starts, moved up by 1.3 per cent in 2007. They are expected to decrease by 2.4 per cent for 2008 and then rebound by 1.1 per cent for 2009. Starts of row houses grew by 11.1 per cent during 2007 and are forecast to fall by 7.6 per cent in 2008 and 4.6 per cent for 2009. Starts of semi-detached houses grew by 0.5 per cent during 2007, but will fall by 3.9 per cent during 2008 and 11.2 per cent during 2009.

MLS®1 sales set to establish a new record for 2007

Existing home sales as measured by the Multiple Listing service (MLS®), are expected to increase during 2007 by 7.6 per cent to approximately 519,722 units, surpassing the previous record level of 483,344 set in 2005. In 2008, MLS® sales are expected to decrease by 3.9 per cent to 499,650 units reflecting moderating demand due to rising mortgage carrying costs. Despite this forecasted decline, MLS® sales in 2008 will be at their second highest level on record. During 2009, continuing moderation is expected with growth falling by 2.3 per cent to 488,300 units.

House price gains will remain strong in 2008

The average MLS® house price is expected to grow by 10.6 per cent for 2007, to about $306,000 as strong sales in Western Canada continue to put pressure on prices. In 2008, existing home markets will become more balanced and price pressures will begin to ease. The average MLS® price will increase by 5.2 per cent to about $322,000 in 2008. Looking ahead to 2009, the average MLS® price is forecast to increase by 3.8 per cent to approximately $335,000.

 

Source: CMHC First Quarter 2008

Western growth drives Canadian housing market; Sales, price gains should moderate

March 25th, 2008 - Real Estate

EDMONTON - Western Canada is leading the way in keeping Canadian real estate markets “remarkably buoyant” despite a deepening housing downturn in the United States, says a national report released Tuesday. “The strength that we saw over the past year has surprised me,” Adrienne Warren, senior economist for Scotiabank and author of the Real Estate Trends report, said in a telephone conference call.

Housing starts in 2007 totalled 228,343 units and matched the heavy activity of the previous two years, said the report. “Overall, we’re looking at housing starts of about 204,000 this year.” Resale activity last year was equally brisk, with MLS sales volumes setting a new record and average home prices climbing by 11 per cent — the fourth straight year increases.

Western Canada led the way in price appreciation but average home prices rose by at least five per cent in all provinces last year, Warren said. “We expect construction, sales and price gains to moderate in 2008 due to decreasing affordability, especially for first-time buyers, and some softening in domestic economic conditions associated with the intensifying U.S. slowdown and persistently strong Canadian dollar,” the report said.

The report describes Canadian households as not overleveraged. Home equity as a share of real estate assets has been steadily building as price gains outpace mortgage obligations. More balanced resale market conditions — as sales volumes drop and more listings come on — should bring average price increases back into the single-digit range, the report said.

“Yet, affordability is becoming a constraining factor in several centres, including Calgary where average home prices have doubled in the past four years.” A flood of new listings in some of the hottest markets, including Edmonton and Calgary,
have helped give them much more balance, the report said. “Both builders and homesellers are attracted by the higher prices and putting more supply on the market.

“We’re moving up but we’re not anywhere near the inventory levels we saw in the late 1980s.” Warren called the current housing boom the strongest and longest of the postwar era, based on real home appreciation. “Between 1998 and 2007, average inflation-adjusted home prices have soared some 65 per cent, easily besting the 32-to-56-per-cent appreciation of the prior three housing cycles of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.”

At 10 years, the current housing upswing is outlasting previous cycles and housing booms in other countries this decade.
Warren credits strong economic performance over the past 10 years and modest population growth from immigration and stabilizing fertility rates for increased housing demand.

New mortgage products featuring longer amortization periods or zero-down interest onlyloans have also helped buyers get into the market, Warren said. Other analysts also point toward more balanced real estate markets in 2008. “Our expectations are that balanced conditions will prevail throughout 2008, which will mark a return to a more normal environment than the highly skewed seller’s market that we have experienced over the better part of this decade,” Phil Soper, president and CEO of Brookfield Real Estate Services, said Tuesday at the release of the Scotiabank report.
He predicted a stumbling U.S. economy will slow growth in Canada. “Yet the solid foundation that supports the contemporary Canadian economy should prevent the housing market here from retracting.”

bmah@thejournal.canwest.com

Embracing the end of the market boom?

February 20th, 2008 - Real Estate

Strong population growth, tight labor market and major investments are indicating an ever strong economy for British Columbians. It seems that the boom is not going to cease, at least not for 2008. But what is really going on outside of British Columbia? Today, we are facing a record high oil price around the globe, a great inflation and recession period taking place in USA and rising Canadian dollar. So, what roles do those factors have in our surging economy growth?

The sky-rocketing oil price means the majority of companies will face a steep shrinkage in their profits because high oil price drives up the cost of transportation and raw material. One of the measurements a company would take is to lay-off its employees. Such an action could eventually lead to a slower employment growth and less spending in the market.

A chain reaction of the inflation and recession faced by Americans have already shown its negative impact on British Columbian forestry. In the beginning of year 2008, Weyerhaeuser announced its closure of its sawmill in Kamloops affecting 196 employees . It is mainly due to the continuing challenging markets in America. It is still unknown when America will recover from the fallout of the sub-prime mortgage but it is foreseeable that Fed will keep on reducing its rate to stimulate the American economy.

Having said that, the housing market in British Columbia is facing a dilemma. Immediately before the fallout of the sub-prime mortgage, the Canadian government raised its mortgage rate attempting to cool down the housing market. Then the blast of sub-prime mortgage is forcing Federal Reserve Board to relentlessly reduce its rate to reflect the severity of the crisis and in an attempt to recover consumers’ confidence to spend. The rate deduction measurement taken by Federal Reserve Board forces other countries to follow in order to stay competitive in the export/import/tourism sectors. It results in the Canadian dollar reaching parity with or even suppressing U.S greenback. What it means is that Canadian dollars will flow southward.

With so many negative signs emerging, the future of British Columbian economy is worrying. Although local economists are still very optimistic about the future economy, the housing price is saying otherwise. More young or first time buyers find it financially challenging to afford a property even for attached units. Some sellers who are serious about selling have also reduced their price to reflect the demand of the market. Therefore, if you are still thinking about selling your property to catch the residual heat of the booming market, now is the right time.

New listings rise to star the new year

February 16th, 2008 - Real Estate

VANCOUVER, B.C. — February 4, 2008 –
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential attached, detached and apartment property sales totalled 1,819 in January 2008, an increase of 0.7 per cent over the 1,806 total residential sales in January 2007 and a 5.5 per cent decline from the 1, 924 sales recorded in January 2006. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties climbed 14.9 per cent in January 2008, compared to the 4,067 units listed in January 2007. In contrast to January 2006, new listings from this January rose more dramatically, up 34.7 per cent.

“With new listings outpacing sales increases to start the year, it appears the market is heading toward more balance,” says REBGV president Brian Naphtali. “The result will be welcome for consumers looking for more time to undertake due diligence before making a buying or selling decision.” Sales of apartment properties in January 2008 rose 11.7 per cent to 860, compared to 695 sales in January 2007. The benchmarkprice, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, of an apartment property increased 13.8 per cent from January 2007 to $378,336. “It was clearly on the strength of apartment sales that overall residential sales figures increased in January,” says Naphtali. “There’s clearly been a trend over the past decade toward growth in the high density condo market. Townhome sales have continued to be steady, and detached homes remain a popular choice. But more and more consumers are purchasing apartments.”

Attached property sales in January 2008 declined 6.7 per cent to 318, compared with the 341 sales from January 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 12.4 per cent from January 2007 to $462,627. January 2008 sales for detached properties decreased 7.8 per cent to 641, from the 695 detached units sold over the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties rose 15.7 per cent from January 2007 to $742,490.
-realtylink.org

2-5-10 Year Home Warranty Insurance

February 3rd, 2008 - Real Estate

10/01 HOME WARRANTY INSURANCE REQUIREMENTS FOR NEW HOMES To increase consumer protection for new home buyers, the Homeowner Protection Act regulations for residential builder licensing and mandatory, third-party home warranty insurance were implemented on July 1, 1999. As a result, all new homes constructed with building permits applied for on or after July 1, 1999 must be built by residential builders licensed with the Homeowner Protection Office (HPO) and covered by a policy of home warranty insurance. In geographic areas where building permits are not required, licensing and home warranty insurance is required for new home construction commenced on or after July 1, 1999. Home warranty insurance can now only be provided by insurance companies that have been approved by the Financial Institutions Commission (FICom) and meet the requirements of the Homeowner Protection Act. (See the HPO bulletin entitled “Understanding Home Warranties” for further information.) Standards of coverage, commencement dates, exclusions and limits on coverage are now set by government to ensure clarity and a consistent base-level of consumer protection.

MINIMUM STANDARDS OF COVERAGE REQUIRED: 2-5-10 Home warranty insurance on new homes includes a minimum of 2 years on labour and materials, 5 years on the building envelope, including water penetration, and 10 years on structure. The 2-year labour and materials coverage is broken down as follows: Any defect in materials and labour: • 12 months on detached homes and on non-common property in strata units (includes fee simple homes) • 15 months on common property of strata buildings Defects in materials and labour related to the delivery and distribution systems (electrical, plumbing, heating ventilation, air conditioning, etc.): • 24 months for all buildings.

 COMMENCEMENT DATES Commencement dates on home warranty insurance are: Fee simple (primarily detached dwelling units): • Custom homes: date of first occupancy or date of first occupancy permit, whichever transpires first. • Spec. homes: Date of first occupancy or date of transfer of legal title to first owner, whichever transpires first. Strata homes: • Strata unit: earliest of date of first occupancy or date of transfer of legal title to first owner. • Common property: earliest of date of first-unit occupancy in strata building or date of transfer of legal title to first owner in building.

HOME WARRANTY INSURANCE EXCLUSIONS The Homeowner Protection Act regulations specify what the home warranty insurance companies can exclude from their policies. General exclusions can include: landscaping; nonresidential detached structures (however, parking structures, recreational and amenity facilities in multi-unit buildings are covered); commercial use areas; roads, curbs and lanes (however, driveways are covered); site grading and surface drainage; the operation of municipal services; septic tanks and fields; and water quality and quantity. Defect related exclusions can include: normal wear and tear; normal shrinkage of materials from construction; use of new home for non-residential purposes; materials, labour and design supplied by the owner; damage caused by the anyone other than the residential builder; damage caused by insects or rodents; failure of an owner to prevent or minimize damage and acts of nature.

LIMITS ON COVERAGE Coverage on claims is as follows: Fee simple (primarily detached dwelling units): • The lesser of the first owner’s purchase price or $200,000. Strata homes: • Strata unit: lesser of the first owner’s purchase price or $100,000. • Common property: the lesser $100,000 times the number of dwelling units in the building or $2.5 million per building. FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT Homeowner Protection Office telephone: (604) 646-7055 email: hpo@hpo.bc.ca toll-free: 1-800-407-7757 Web site: www.hpo.bc.ca fax: (604) 646-7051 2-5-10 Year Home Warranty Insurance R E S T O R I N G C O N F I D E N C E

Leaky condos still a disaster

February 3rd, 2008 - Real Estate

 William Boei

B.C.’s leaky condo disaster is entering its third decade. The worst of it is behind us but it is far from over and we are not nearly finished paying for it, or arguing about who is to blame.

The human cost of the disaster is not measurable. Hundreds of thousands of British Columbians have been touched by it.

For some, it was no more than a financial inconvenience. Their homes leaked, and they paid to repair to them.

Others, especially in the 1990s, lost their homes, their savings and their health.

Tens of thousands of condo units built during the B.C. building boom of the mid-1980s to the late 1990s suffered water damage as wind-driven rain entered the walls of badly designed, badly built buildings.

The home building industry’s warranty program collapsed under the weight of the claims, and many homeowners got little or nothing back. They included older couples who intended to spend their golden years in a low-maintenance condo and young families buying their first homes.

In the worst cases, the walls leaked so badly homes were all but flooded. Wet carpets sprouted mushrooms. Moulds, some of them toxic, stained the walls, making some people sick. And the walls rotted.

Some condo owners walked away from their mortgages and their homes. Some slipped into bankruptcy. Some developed respiratory and stress-related illnesses.

There was no government help until the end of the 1990s following two public inquiries, when the province set up its Homeowner Protection Office and offered condo owners interest-free repair loans.

The financial cost of leaky condos is measurable, but only parts of it are being measured.

We do know that the average cost of repairing water-damaged condos has nearly doubled since the Homeowner Protection Office was created. Some figures indicate it has more than tripled.

Government and industry sources agree the cost is going up because:

More and more concrete highrise condo owners are discovering leaks, and they’re more expensive to fix than low-rises;

Low-rise buildings whose owners have put off repairs — sometimes for years — or tried to cover up the problem with cosmetic fixes are coming up for repairs with more advanced rot than buildings that were dealt with early;

Construction costs are rising fast as B.C. rides another major building boom.

One indicator of per-unit repair costs is the interest-free repair loans provided by the HPO.

“The average value of the loans has been going up quite significantly,” said HPO chief executive Ken Cameron, “so it’s now in the $60,000-to-$75,000 per unit range, whereas it used to be in the $35,000-to-$40,000 range.”

The number of low-rise buildings turning up with building envelope problems is past its peak, but a second wave of leaky condos — concrete highrise buildings — is well under way.

“It’s not over,” said Carmen Maretic, a real estate agent who has been advocating for leaky condo owners for years. “It’s very much still a problem.

“People are still dealing with the whole process of evaluating their buildings and going through whether a majority of owners can agree to do repairs.”

Maretic, who heads the CASH (Consumer Advocacy and Support for Homeowners) Society, said HPO statistics show that in the last eight months, the HPO approved nearly $139,000 per day in repair loans.

“As shocking as these costs are, this only represents a portion of the true repair costs as many homeowners do not qualify for HPO no-interest or deferred loans,” Maretic said.

Her figures indicate the average loan has more than tripled, from $19,733 as of March 2000 to nearly $60,500 in the last eight months.

Maretic called on the provincial government to provide more help for leaky condo owners and press the federal government to kick in more money.

Ottawa kicked in about $28 million early on for the HPO interest-free loans fund, but serious negotiations for a larger federal contribution petered out years ago.

One highrise after another, along the New Westminster waterfront, on the North Shore, in downtown Vancouver and elsewhere in Greater Vancouver, is getting its walls stripped down to concrete, scaffolding erected to roof level and green shrouds draped over the building to keep the rain out during repairs.

Advocates like Maretic and James Balderson of the Coalition of Leaky Condo Owners are keenly aware of them, engineers like Pierre Gallant of Morrison Hershfield who oversee the repairs say they’re seeing more leaky highrises relative to low-rises, and the HPO’s Cameron acknowledges there are proportionally more highrises joining the lists of leaky buildings.

On virtually all of them, the outer cladding — usually “face seal” systems attached to the concrete walls with steel studs — has failed to keep the rain out. The fix is to strip off the cladding and replace it with rain-screen wall systems that include a cavity between inner and outer wall components to let any water that gets in drain out again.

Leaky highrises were predicted in the late 1990s by Dave Ricketts of RDH Building Engineering, among others.

“It would be surprising if these buildings did not leak,” Ricketts wrote in the engineering journal Innovation in 1999. “The key difference is the time it takes for the problems to manifest themselves and create a health and safety hazard.”

Gallant agreed. It takes longer for highrises to show problems because, simply, “wood rots faster than steel rusts,” he said.

A face-seal wall “relies on perfection” to keep the rain out, “and therefore fails.”

Low-rises with face-seal walls often leaked in spots where doors, windows, balconies and other features are attached to the walls, and the joints are imperfectly sealed, especially on the upper floors, which are more exposed to rain and wind.

“The exposure on highrises is much higher because the wind exposure is far greater. But the materials are more robust and take longer to decay, typically,” Gallant said.

A few highrises have failed catastrophically: Sections of cladding have let go and plunged to the ground. But most of them just show the same symptoms as leaky highrises — water inside the windows, wet spots and mould on the walls.

Highrise or lowrise, the expert advice is that the longer you put off repairing a leaky building, the more expensive it will be.

Yet there are still dozens if not hundreds of low-rise wood-frame buildings where the owners haven’t realized their walls are rotting, or are refusing to acknowledge the problem, or have tried cosmetic fixes when major repairs are needed, or are deadlocked with their neighbours over whether and how much to spend on repairs.

Many strata councils are pursuing slow-moving lawsuits, trying to recover at least some of their repair costs from developers, contractors, architects, engineers, window manufacturers, municipal governments — anyone connected with their leaky buildings with deep enough pockets to sue.

Most of the suits are settled through mediation and with non-disclosure agreements attached, so there is no public record of the average settlement. But lawyers say strata councils typically get 40 to 60 cents back for every dollar they spend on repairs.

For those who can’t reach a consensus, or can’t muster the resources to get through the daunting process of hiring technical and legal expertise to assess the damage, finance the repairs and recover at least some of the cost, it’s an unending nightmare.

“The longer you wait, the more the damage,” said Gallant. “And the cost is going to be higher not only because there’s more damage, but because construction costs are going up. So putting your head in the sand is not going to solve the problem.”

“Many people are still suffering,” Maretic added, “particularly those that went into bankruptcy and those that have health consequences.”

After all these years, no one can yet say with any certainty just how big the problem is.

There are no solid statistics for the number of leaky condos or how much it is costing to fix them, although the HPO is sticking with a five-year-old estimate that about 65,000 condo and co-op units have suffered water damage and the total repair bill will be about $1.5 billion.

But there is no registry of leaky condos, no comprehensive list, no certainty about how many buildings have been touched by the rot.

“No one knows the extent of B.C.’s leaky condo crisis,” said Louise Murray, who operates the bccondos.ca advocacy website, “because, unbelievably at this late stage in the game, no one is tracking it.”

It is guesswork whether the HPO’s loan statistics reflect actual repair costs.

Only those who can show they don’t have the assets and income to shoulder the cost of repairs, and are prepared to follow the HPO’s repair guidelines, are eligible for the loans. Those with more resources, whose homes may be more expensive and cost more to fix, are not eligible and not counted. Those who try to make do with patch-work repairs are not counted. Not surprisingly, many suspect the HPO’s numbers are low.

“We’ve never trusted their estimation,” said Balderson. “We continue to think they underestimate the magnitude of the problem and the total cost.”

Balderson says only 20 per cent of condo owners qualify for HPO assistance — leaky condo welfare, he scathingly calls it.

That means 80 per cent of the problem is not accounted for by HPO statistics, and Balderson notes the 80 per cent includes upscale buildings where no one qualifies for loans, and repairs run as high as $125,000 per unit or more.

“I think their number’s low on total costs incurred,” concurred John Singleton, a lawyer whose firm, Singleton Urquhart, has defended many building professionals in leaky condo suits. “My sense is it’s over $2 billion.”

That’s for residential buildings. The HPO counts only leaky condos and co-ops. But they were not the only buildings affected by design and construction problems in the ’80s and ’90s.

“We have seen failures in all kinds of buildings,” said Gallant, whose company is one of the region’s leading engineering firms for building remediation work.

Rental housing, social housing, office buildings, schools, churches, even shopping malls are infested with the same problems as leaky condos. Water gets in the walls, it can’t get out again, and the wall components slowly rot. We don’t hear much about them because they don’t have angry owners clamouring for media attention. Gallant says their owners file insurance claims, do the repairs and file lawsuits with no public fanfare.

So what’s the grand total? Nobody knows.

Might it be higher than the official estimate?

“It might,” Cameron conceded. “It’s hard to say.”

Gallant and others with an overview of the construction industry guess that residential housing probably accounts for the majority of the damage. So if the real cost of repairing leaky condos is more than $2 billion and repairs to all other types of buildings amount to only one-third of the total, the bills add up to at least $3 billion — double the province’s estimate.

The Vancouver Sun 2006

A quick forecast for 2008

February 1st, 2008 - Real Estate

Driven by strong population growth, increase in consumer spending, major investment in construction and high business confidence, B.C.’s economy is still looking very bright for 2008.

After seven consecutive prosperous years, the demand for homeownership still remains strong. However, the record high housing price forces many first time buyers and low-equity home buyers moving away from detached units for the time being.

In 2007 Q3, newly constructed detached units were down by 28.7% compared to 2006 while attached units had a 14.6% increase. The reflection of builders’ actions might suggest a foreseeable change in housing demand. We might witness a shift in demand in favor of attached units in 2008 due to their affordability. Having that said, detached units might experience slight price increase compared to 2007.

Protect yourself from residential break-ins

January 18th, 2008 - Home Tips
  1. About 8,000 homes are burglarized in Vancouver annually.
  2. Burglaries typically occur between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m.
  3. Burglars spend just 8 to 12 minutes in your home.
  4. The burglar is typically a male teenager living within a few miles of your home, not a professional thief.
  5. Homes without security systems are 2 to 3 times more likely to be broken into than homes with security systems.
  6. Thieves spend about 60 seconds to get into your home.
  7. Once inside, thieves head for the master bedroom where home owners typically keep valuables
  8. More than 16,000 cars are burglarized each year.

Secure your home

  1. Get an alarm system and place alarm signs around your property;
  2. Get motion sensitive lights; and
  3. Install deadbolts and bars on windows.

Sources from Vancouver Police Department; Washington Post

Remarkable top floor condo unit in Port Moody

January 16th, 2008 - Listings

A remarkable 2 Bedroom and 2 bath top floor unit facing greenery trail with14 ft vaulted ceiling and hardwood floor. It comes with an open deluxe kitchen with granite counters and tasteful combination of Mahogany cabinets and stainless steel appliances. A well laid-out floor plan, a huge walk-in closet in each room, plus 2 storage units make it one of a kind. Beautiful Inlet Park, the city library, the state of the art Port Moody Rec Centre, colorful Newport Village market and Eagle Ridge hospital are all within walking distance. The unit is part of the master-planned village of Suter Brook, This unbeatable seaside site is being transformed into a picturesque, pedestrian friendly neighbourhood. On top of everything, it is still under 2-5-10 warranty. If you want to enjoy a nice, and quiet neighborhood and a rich lifestyle, do not miss out on this one!